Increasing Penetration of BEVs Overcapacity or opportunity for cast aluminium?
Improving battery technology and forthcoming regulation of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are boosting the outlook for the electric vehicle (EV). EV components offer new opportunities for the aluminium foundries.
But should the battery electric vehicle (BEV) share rise considerably faster than that of the plug-in-hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and the full hybrid vehicle (HV) combined? An overcapacity could hit aluminium foundries by the end of the next decade. Electric vehicle (EV) battery prices are falling faster than expected and consumer cost of ownership could reach parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) as early as 2018 in Europe. Forecasts for EVs are revised upwards as its technology is improving, promising longer range and shorter charging time in the near future. In the meantime, the list of countries imposing regulations or even a ban of ICE vehicles is getting longer. The Netherlands and India have just recently announced a complete sales ban of ICE vehicles from 2025 and 2030 respectively, while China and the EU have a sales quote system on the agenda for PHEVs and BEVs.
If indeed the next generation of BEVs will have a range of +400 km, charging times of about 15 minutes and cost parity with ICEs are met due to falling battery prices, the penetration of BEVs will increase rapidly. Looking at the latest projections from 24 different automotive forecasting institutes and tier suppliers, a worldwide BEV penetration of 6,86% (range between 2% - 15%) is expected by 2025, growing to 18,56% (range between 5,75% - 34%) in 2030.