Development Report China: Q1-Q3 2015 Equipment Manufacture Industry

From Q1 to Q3, the year-on-year growth of industrial added value of equipment manufacturers above designated size is 6.52% and realized export delivery value is RMB 4,892.35 billion which decreases by 0.72%.

Situation of Key Industries

(I) Slight Decline of Automobile Production and Minor Growth of Sales Volume

From Q1 to Q3, the automobile production and automobile sales volume in China are 17.0916 million and 17.0565 million, which decreases by 0.8% and increases by 0.3% on a year-on-year basis.

From Q1 to Q3, the passenger vehicle production and sales volume are 14.6063 million and 14.5478 million, which increase by 1.5% and 2.8%, respectively. From a perspective of vehicle type, the sedan car sales volume is 8.1953 million which decreases by 8.8% on a year-on-year basis, the MPV sales volume is 1.4229 million which increases by 8.2% on a year-on-year basis, the SUV sales volume is 4.0842 million which increases by 46.7% on a year-on-year basis and the cross-passenger car sales volume is 0.8455 million which decreases by 20.9% on a year-on-year basis.

From Q1 to Q3, the commercial vehicle production and sales volume are 2.4853 million and 2.5087 million, respectively, which decreases by 12.5% and 11.8%, respectively, on a year-on-year basis.

(II) Decline of Output of Main Products in Construction Machinery Industry

From Q1 to Q3, the productions of excavators and loaders decline by 24.3% and 28.8%, respectively, and the productions of concrete machinery, compaction machinery and cement specific equipment decline by 18%, 20.8% and 13.8%, respectively, on a year-on-year basis. The productions of electric forklifts and internal combustion engine driven forklifts decline by 17.6% and 11.2%, respectively, on a year-on-year basis.

(III) Machine Tool Industry Still in a Valley

From Q1 to Q3, the metal cutting machine tool production declines by 7.6% on a year-on-year basis and the numerical control metal cutting machine tool production declines by 7.2% on a year-on-year basis. The metal forming machine tool production declines by 6.3% on a year-on-year basis, the metal cutting tool production declines by 4.1% on a year-on-year basis and the casting machinery production increases by 5.2% on a year-on-year basis.

(IV) Declining Output of Main Products in Mechanical Parts Industry

From Q1 to Q3, the valve production increases by 0.9% on a year-on-year basis. The forge piece, gear, reducer and pump productions declines by 2.9%, 3.6%, 4.6% and 4%, respectively, on a year-on-year basis.

Analysis and Prediction of Domestic Situation

Situation Analysis

As for domestic economy, Chinese economy enters a new normal situation where the economy is still in an optimistic trend although some fluctuations occurred. The situation is still controllable although there is a coexistence of many problems such as external demand shrinkage, aggregation of multiple internal conflicts, great downward pressure, insufficient total demand and excess production capacity and so on. China is carrying out a comprehensive reform to greatly adjust its demand structure, production structure, industrial organization structure, product structure and business model, some new growth points emerge and new growth powers are being formed.

Prediction

In Q1 of this year, the growth rate of equipment industry declines drastically and the decline is far beyond expectation. In Q2 and Q3, the decline is somewhat decelerated and some industries already become warmer. Due to a small cardinal number in the last year, it is expected that in Q4 the industry will recover towards stabilization but the growth rate of the whole year will be lower than that in the last year.

(ID:43776405)